Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is still undecided about the Iran Nuclear Deal. Outside pressure is pushing Schumer to vote against the deal, and Ring of Fire thinks he’s going to buckle and oppose the deal.

According to Politico, Schumer’s office has received 10,000 phone calls in the last two weeks calling for his opposition to the Iran nuclear deal. Those phone calls were organized by an anti-Iran deal group, and another group has spent millions on a television campaign in New York urging Schumer to oppose the deal. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has led the charge against the Iran deal in New York. With all this lobbying, any determination about which way the senator will go is still hazy. But, here’s why ROF thinks he will likely buckle.

Much of Schumer’s key support comes from pro-Israel groups that strongly oppose the Iran nuclear deal. He’s also next in line as the Senate Democratic leader after Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) retires in January 2017. Pro-Israel groups helped Schumer get to the Senate and will also support his rise to Senate leadership, but he could lose support from other Democrats. By supporting the Iran nuclear deal, Schumer stands to lose much of that support from Jewish donors who strongly oppose the deal.

Schumer is conflicted, and political decisions often are not driven by logic or ethics, but solely by politics and money. He can buck the White House and party leaders who support the deal, or he can buck his pro-Israel supporters and lose contributions. He’ll likely follow the money, that’s just what Washington does.